今天才知道唐骏跳槽了，以10亿RMB的签约费从盛大到一个没听说过的福建新花都集团。10亿RMB！还只是签约费！！！中国的职业经理人是越来越值钱了

 

不过看了他在腾讯和网友的聊天记录，到不禁想起偶这么多年一直在琢磨的人生规划的问题。怎么说呢，活着是一件很复杂的事情。偶喜欢玩游戏，所以呢，偶觉得人活着也挺像是一个游戏。每个人出生的时间和地点有好有坏（乱世人VS太平犬），出生时的装备有好有坏（穷爸爸VS富爸爸），出生时的能力值有好有坏（聪明VS弱智）。刚出生的时候地图没有探开是黑的，随着年岁增长阅历增加地图上越来越多的地方被探开，但是我们永远不知道这个无限大地图是什么样的，有着什么样的地形，有着什么样的宝藏；而且我们永远看不清周围很小一块区域以外的地方——即使是被探开的地方也都被迷雾遮盖着。更麻烦的是，我们也不知道科技树的后面是什么科技，能够给我们什么能力。但是跟游戏不一样的是，我们并不知道我们活着是为了什么。像游戏一样，我们需要开矿种地挖宝去维持生计，我们需要与别人竞争去赢得有限的资源和另一半；但是不像游戏，生活没有明确的输赢规则。我们需要在做平凡的开矿种地挖宝的工作维持生计的同时寻找生活的意义。

 

在这种环境里，“人生规划”挺苍白无力的。不要告诉我人定胜天——你活个长生不老给我看看先。可是，怎么说呢，虽然成事在天，但是谋事也是在人的。有的同学很洒脱，比如说Helia，活得很简单率性，不像偶很累的老是规划来规划去。有的同学很幸运，比如说贝利，生来就是当球王的料，也不用规划来规划去。可是没法子，俺就一普通人，想活的好点，只有平时多琢磨琢磨。

 

偶的人生规划也很简单：走一步，看两步，想三步。我反着来解释。想三步是指对于在未来五到十年或者更久的长期（三步），琢磨自己想要实现什么长期目标——比如偶要找到一个宝藏。长期的特点就是离现在很远，我们现在每天做的琐事对于它不会有实质性的影响（走不到），而且长期的事情谁也说不清（看不清），所以只能想。长期目标不用很具体，比如说偶十年后要当某某公司的CEO。具体也没用，因为十有八九几年之后任何具体的长期目标都会变得面目全非——地图还没探呢，现在说要在六点钟方向挖宝藏也太不靠谱了些。但是也不能太模糊，比如把“我要成功”当目标只怕太模糊了——玩游戏谁都想赢，但是光说“我要赢”也不会自动把对方的主基地抄了。偶现在的长期目标是：第一，能够对世界，尤其是中国的经济和社会，有着比较好的理解；第二，能够利用自己的知识做出一些事情——能够创造价值的事情，而不是在零和游戏里剥削别人的事情；第三，能够实现财务自由。

 

看两步是指在未来三到五年的中期（两步），依据长期目标，为自己定一个中期的目标和计划。中期是连接短期的行动和长期目标之间的桥梁。比长期近比短期远，所以能看的清楚些，但是还是没法直接去影响它。人生的可能性很多，诱惑也很多，所以也不能什么都看什么都想要——探路的工人可是没法挖矿种地造房子的——得根据长期目标来。偶现在的中期目标是：熟悉中国的商业环境，选择一两个行业或者function进行深入研究获得一技之长可以独当一面。

 

走一步是指在未来一到两年的短期（一步），根据中期目标，为自己定一个比较具体的目标并且去实现它，比如说升职，比如说跳槽，比如说考证，因为这个时间段里的事情自己有比较大的把握能够预料和控制。这里要的是执行力，计划定好了，没出现山无棱江水为竭冬雷震震夏雨雪就必须去执行——喊了“Go!Go!Go!”就得朝着目标A过去，不然队友被包饺子就只有GG了。偶现在的短期目标就是MBA顺利毕业并回国找到一份理想工作，比如说VC或者咨询或其他啥啥的。

 

话说到这里，一步两步三步（四步望着天）还有点像回事，尤其从后往前推的目标导向似乎挺make sense。但是人生无常，唯一不变的就是变化。路漫漫其修远兮，所以呢，走着走着时不时的还是要停下来歇一歇，回头看看走过的路，再想想目的地变没变，将来的路怎么走。十年之后，偶再回头看看今天写的这些东西，没准会被雷的风中凌乱。立此为证。

晚上去LSE听了场关于behaviour economics的讲座。演讲的是MIT的Dan Ariely，他新出了本书：Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions。书俺还没看过，不过听了今天的讲座应该差不了。虽然偶自认对于behaviour economics或者finance稍微懂一些，但是今天还是被绝倒了。很好很强大。偶觉得最猛的例子是关于preference的。比如说有两个很不一样的选择A和B，各有各的好，很多人就不知道怎么选择。这时候如果我们加上一个和A很像但是明显比A差的A'，绝大多数人会选A。类似的如果加上的是B'，则大家会选B。据说这个在dating里的时候一样的适用。所以喽，下次大家去泡妞的时候，大家知道该带什么样的同伴去了

 

不过在他介绍自己为什么对behaviour economics感兴趣的时候，他提到他是problem oriented——就是说，在真实的世界里发现有趣的问题，然后用各种方法和学科来解释之；而不是反过来，从理论出发来倒推实际。这个可能对于很多人来说是plainly obvious，但是对偶这样的曾经的（半）原教旨理想主义者来说，能够认同这一点还是标志着和过去显著的变化的。其实回头看看，这几年最有用的倒是能够接触真实世界，去测试理论到底对不对，去发现理论和现实之间的差距。如果当时接受了LSE phd的offer，现在估计还在自娱自乐的玩数学游戏吧。

 

以前一门心思想进VC和PE，但是最近却总是在问自己到底从商学院毕业没有industry experience直接去做投资会不会做的好。没准先进industry做几年感受一下实体经济会好一些？不知道了。以前一直在追求能够满足偶各种需要的optimal job，现在却越来越觉得没有哪个工作是optimal的：我们想要什么取决于我们有什么。做routine的work的时候觉得boring想要challenge，等到做exciting的work压力大出不了活的时候又会怀念routine work简单的快乐。钱少的时候不惜卖命赚钱，钱多的时候又拼命拿钱买命。更何况，什么job好什么不好也是风水轮流转的。十年前玩commodity玩derivatives大多是不够格去做stock和bond的，前两年stock却是最不招人待见的。三十年前elegent和high class的IBD的根本瞧不起Brooklyn来的痞子trader，现在sales&trading倒是比IBD钱多lifestyle又好的dominating option。看来最靠谱的还是保持flexibility和open-minded，过几年换个工作甚至行业去体验一下不一样的生活。国外流行revolving door，而中国现在也开始商而忧则仕，条条大路通罗马的说。

 

不过话说回来，虽然毕业就去做投资比我不一定是最好的选择，这个industry还是相当的挣钱的——给不给客户挣不知道，总之自己挣饱。爱因斯坦据说曾经说过宇宙里最恐怖的武器是复利（compounded interest）——杨白劳们想必肯定没有异议。现在世界上最富有的人是巴菲特同学（最新统计620亿美元的身家），而他比绝大多数投资于共同基金的普通美国人富有的原因则是因为他每年的投资回报（20%）比S&P 500（10%）高一点点。在他投资的42年里，S&P 500翻了67倍，满impressive的，但是巴菲特同学的投资，由于比S&P高那么一点点，翻了67倍的67倍——4500倍。不管怎么说巴菲特同学是拿自己的钱投资，挣了大家都服气。现在如果巴菲特同学是替客户理财，并且按照对冲基金风险投资里里通行的2-20（2%资产管理费和20%的利润）来收取费用的话，这620亿美元有多少会归客户所有，有多少是归他自己呢？2-20听起来并不高，不是么？好歹巴菲特同学每年能实现20%的回报啊，2-20的结果每年只拿6.5%，似乎还是客户拿大头。

 

结果呢？620亿美元里有大概50亿美元是客户的。没错，50亿，没有少个零。剩下的570亿是巴总的。OK大家也许会说巴菲特这么牛，多拿点钱也是应该的。那现在我们假设其实巴总就一普通人，每年只能挣10%的回报，跟S&P 500一样。这样的话620亿会缩水成9.3亿（620亿的67分之一）。那这9.3亿里，资质平平的巴总能拿多少钱呢？

 

答案是7.6亿，只有1.7亿归可怜的客户。多么旱涝保收的职业啊

原文在这里。

 

Maybe it's not a meaningful question after all.  I have thought about this question intensively and exhaustively for several months last year when I was struggling with essays for b-schools, especially Stanford.  OK I might be greedy, but I finally decide I want both - we simply need both material satisfaction and spiritual fulfilment in our life.  Money can't buy love, but books wont' fill your stomach either.  What we want depends on what we have.  It's pointless to ask what's the single most important thing in our lives.  OK maybe survival and re-production, as we have done for millions if not billions of years, if we really want to pin down to one thing.  But I guess that's not the answer anyone is after.
 
After all It's not a black or white choice.  It's just we may not get the balance right, and I agree Chinese might generally put too much weight on material satisfaction in their careers (but, hey, there are also loads of Americans and Britains lured and trapped by the money and glamour on the Street and in the City).  The fact that the downside in China is not as well capped as that in the US might be a justification.  Also the quick growth in China makes it potentially very costly if you devote too much to pure spiritual fulfilment.
 
Anyway I'm not advocating money is the king, and I'll be dead right away if I work as an M&A banker...

OK I acknowledge the boss has more experience and information.  But I do believe that to attract more business and earn more money, we should raise our quote substantially.  At least the nominal one, with a significant introductory discount if we don't want to scare off new clients.  But we can't live with such bargain price.  Not many people could tell the difference between value and cost, especially so for services like consulting, indeed many clients might not be aware of the difference between the two terms at all.  Our clients won't take us and our work seriously if they only pay small changes.

 

C'est La Vie.  I'm leaving anyway.

大家鼠年快乐

 

新年新气象，俺在阔别学校三年半后又要背书包了——偶已经定下来去伦敦商学院（London Business School）读MBA，今年8月底开学，两年毕业。

 

Why MBA?  Knowledge, badge/network, and experience。成本是定的：两年£45K的学费（减去£12K的奖学金），两年至少£72K的税后工资损失（减去£若干K potential暑假intern和project的收入），净成本£100K。但是收益如何就只有阿弥陀佛了。希望老天保佑拉 总之俺半年以后的状态就是失业背债吃软饭了

 

Why LBS?  As a matter of fact，这是我唯一的一个offer（H/S/W据俺没商量）。如果拿到了这些offer会不会去呢？不知道。不过也无所了。

 

偶计划毕业即回国（Yeah!!!）争取进入风险投资业，现在正在找今年暑假在国内的fund实习的机会。大家有什么advice和information还请不吝赐教 

 

当然如果有其它的工作能够满足俺的好奇心，成就感，以及物质要求的话偶也会考虑地

"The customer is god", we've learned from numerous sources long before we entered the business world.  We all know this is a way exaggeration in retail business.  No one really cares when single customers get pissed off.  With thousands or millions or even billions of customers, the consequence of losing a single customer is too trivial to keep the management awake at night.

 

But things are totally different in professional services.  Clients, instead of customers, are who pay for our work.  They are financially big.  They have buyer power, and sometimes they are too important to lose.  Therefore they can and do make fuss.  All kinds of.

 

At times the temptation of complying with their request, be it sensible or nonsensical, seems to be insurmountable, especially when you are approaching the end of the project and have already overrun the budget.  The consequence of confrontation looks stark: you risk losing an important client, which means not only the client but also your boss and colleagues may be against you.

 

But you have to stand firm when you believe the request is substantial but you are uncomfortable with seeing your name or your firm's name appearing on the final product accommodating the request.  When you have backed down once, it's too simple to back down twice.  When the line is crossed, it's not far away from making disastrous mistakes which would destroy your or your firm's reputation, the life blood in the professional services industries.

 

And the consequence of confrontation is not always painful.  Late lst year and early this year we disagreed with two important clients, two mighty regulators, substantially.  Although we kept redrating the reports as they asked, we never compromised on the important issues we were uncomfortable with.  Finally they accepted the reports, paid the bill and shut up.

 

Normally the story would have ended here and we would end up with annoying these two important clients, if not losing them.  However, things turned out to be better than the best we had hoped for.  This week both clients commented incredibly warmly on not only the content of the reports, but also our resistence to their inappropriate requests.  In addition, more work have come as a result.  No ending could be happier.

 

Nevertheless there is a question unanswered: what if you judgement on the substance and correctness of client's request is wrong?  The answer: bear the consequence.  This is risk.  Whenever you make judgement you are taking risk.  If you have no confidence in your judgement, do whatever the clients ask for.  The only thing worse than making mistake is that you are the only one making the mistake.

假的。。。嘿嘿

 

不过这段时间都在FSA做secondment，也假模假样的有个@fsa.gov.uk的email。不过一直不敢用这个来发私人邮件，到底陆纯初同学的尸骨还没寒那。引用Jeff老板的言论：don't send out any email using your GS account until you are comfortable with seeing it as newspaper headline...

 

Easter前刚去FSA的时候还是很开心的，因为平时住City又在City上班，去Canary Wharf上上班顺便换帮人吃吃饭似乎是满爽的。不过快乐的日子总是短暂的，换来的只是加倍的郁闷。

 

FSA毕竟是政府机构，虽然是世界上效率最高的综合性金融监管机构，到底还是难免官僚，比如说俺的security pass和IT profile用了一个礼拜才弄好。其间只能以guess身份进楼，不能随意出入，出去跟Scolet吃次午饭还得靠FSA的同事掩护，弄的跟prison break似的。最郁闷的是没有电脑用，没有网上，这是人过的日子么。。。而且曾经有段时间俺的手机也因为欠费到了credit limit而被锁住了，真是屋漏偏逢连夜雨。。。

 

牢骚先发到这里，回头做完了再写工作感受。不管怎么说有这段经历还是满好玩的，而且还是fully billable的。。。

Hello mates, I'm back.  For now.

 

Yesterday Lucy Kellaway, one of my favourit FT columnists, talked about her six work marriages (http://news.ft.com/cms/s/57f0e6e8-b763-11da-b4c2-0000779e2340.html).  To avoid inducing some readers into commenting on the development of divorce rate in the west, I feel obliged to clarify on the term used:

 

The office spouse is someone you see everyday and spend more waking time with than your actual spouse.  They are your default position for a sandwich at lunch.  They are your colleague of choice for a gossip, for confidences and for laughing at the corporate video.  They are someone to ask for advice and give advice to in return.

 

It is said that such relationship is quite common these days, as Vault has suggested that 32 per cent of workers have an office spouse and the number is growing fast.  However, although I have no doubt of the truthfulness of this concept, this figure is too high to be true - as far as I know there is no office couples, as defined above, in my firm.  Nor am I aware of any of my close friends here has been involved in such relationship with an opposite sex (please correct me if I am wrong).  I'm not suggesting that I do not have female friends, but all of them would fail the first test horribly - that I spend more waking time with them than my actual spouse - well, if I were to have one.

 

Probably one reason is that I'm not comfortable with having my colleagues as my close friends, at least not with colleagues likely to compete with me head-on.  Being close friends means you both know a lot about each other, good or bad, public or secret.  Apparently this would cost you dear if you have mistrusted somebody in your office.

 

Another reason might be that we, at least friends around me, to the best of my knowledge, tend to hang out with the same sex in the office ("brokeback" flashed in your mind?) as generally this will guarantee much more common topic - girls normally share gossip with girls only and natually we would prefer to have some guys to talk about football.  It doesn't matter that we support teams which are life-long enemies of each other, as far as we love the game to a similar extent.

 

Anyway I cannot rule out the possibility that I'm abnormal and those around me are of the same nature, and I would be happy to know if you are married, or engaged, at work.

不灌水很久了，冒个泡~~

 

面对现实吧，祥林，不再叫唤自己忙了。何况算绝对工作时间的话，对着那么多在IB的同学我也显然没脸说自己工作忙的。

 

昨天跟一个朋友抱怨现在这个项目不是我想做的，而且因为proposal是自己写的所以不能不做，她一句“我做的东西都不是我想做的”堵的我没了话说。原来自己不做不喜欢的项目已经有很久了，久的连一年多以前在整个公司里到处求爷爷告奶奶找活做的日子都恍若隔世。

 

从做intern算起，在公司也呆了有二十个月了。二十个月意味着看到学生投来的CV和cover letter就会觉得很陌生，陌生的连里面的阿谀之词和自夸之语都显得很好笑。好笑之余也有些隐隐的不安，因为。。。我当年。。。似乎也这么写过。。。

 

前段时间整理email，重新的看了一遍当时申请intern前后和公司的通信，果然what goes around, comes around.

Time flies not only when you are having fun, but also when you are working - well, these two are not necessarily mutually exclusive provided you enjoy your work to some extent. The fear arising from being under-utilised of the cold days before last Christmas is still vivid, and Santa Claus is already knocking on the door.

 

Although a never-say-never believer, I would never ever label myself as a workaholic or anything equivalent.  On the contrary, I'm lazy, uninterested in the idea of working over weekends, and unable to work late in night.  Therefore one needs not to be surprised to know that, when finally realised I have nearly taken no holiday in the past year, I was shocked by the fact that I only realised such strange thing at the very end of the year and mainly because I was finally going for holiday.  That said, I would probably keep working with no holidays for another considerably long period without being noticed had I not been obliged to go back to China this time.  Pigs can fly, you see.

 

I was much less surprised by the fact that I am thought to have done a great job this year - I kept feeling this throughout my work in the past eleven months.  During my annual review yesterday, the boss, who had received "extremely favourable comments" from all the senior people that I have worked for, was keeping throwing positive words on me.  After taking into account that, to the best of my knowledge, he has never given any negative comments to any of my colleagues, the abundance of extreme adjectives he was using seemed to tell that he truly meant what he was saying.  Anyway, before taking his words too seriously and concluding that justice has been done, I need to first check the figure of my annual salary rise.  It's always much easier to say than to do, especially for those having the every incentive to save money by bribing you with sweet words.

 

Finger crossed for that I could have enough money to cover my living expenses next year and wish myself good luck.

Possibly many.  Money, status, damaged health, to name but a few.  But today I'd rather talk about job satisfaction.

 

This morning we received a letter from our client, the national law society of an English-speaking country, for whom one senior colleague and I have helped draft a submission - actually the word "help" could more precisely be dropped.  We were flattered when we were informed that the submission is regarded as "the best document ever produced by the Law Society".

 

Forgive my vanity.  I'm not sure whether this is more of a praise for our work or a shame on our client, who in that country regulates and represents most of the lawyers, a profession making a living mainly by drafting documents.  Nevertheless it's really good to know that the work you've produced is valued and appreciated, especially when the chapter mainly drafted by you is regarded as the best chapter in that document.

 

I cannot help recalling the days, just one year ago, when I could make 20 plus grammar mistakes in one A4 page as I first started my current job.  I was so creative and productive in generating grammar mistakes that the senior who supervised me quickly concluded he'd better not throw any drafting work at me.  I cannot say for sure that those days are forever gone, but I'm more confident now than I was a year ago.

早上5点钟就得起床。。。我恨travel。。。估计这就是为什么来英国两年多了还没出境过的原因。。。之一

 

小时候还是挺爱玩的，小学毕业以前就去过N个地方了，坐火车坐的不亦乐乎，吃盒饭也吃的不亦乐乎。高中的时候也能折腾，两天之内就把全班同学撺掇到无锡去春游了一次。上了大学就老实了，大四的时候居然可以为了等offer而放弃毕业旅游，我不知道是该庆幸还是悲哀。

 

习惯的力量是可怕的，特别是习惯了放弃。放弃这种事情一旦开了头就停不住了，无论是娱乐，感情，还是原则。我可以为了第二个学期轻松些而放弃圣诞的假期，我可以为了写论文而放弃复活节假，我可以为了做intern放弃暑假，我也可以为了能挤上做project放弃圣诞回家——直到现在那种不被utilised时候的恐惧还是一样深刻。当初觉得来英国的一个好处就是想回去就可以回去，然而我在美国的同学一个个回国逍遥的时候我还是没回去过。说真的，今年圣诞能不能回去，我不知道。。。

 

不过做出一副工作狂的姿态显然是虚伪的——做人要诚实，除了该撒谎的时候——毕竟我一周工作的时间还不超过60个小时。我懒到是真的，而且是超级的懒，譬如很多很近的而且我一直嚷嚷着要去的地方却一直都没去。过去的两年里我离开这个城市的时间可以以小时计算，却直到上上周五才第一次邂逅Harrods——还是因为去爱尔兰使馆办签证。上周五第二次路过，是因为去取签证。难道我要等到明年夏天续签证的时候才能最终完成三过哈门而不入么？

总算加完了

 

每次周六总是没有什么心思干活的，于是周末加班必然是会被一直拖到周日的下午和晚上。我的预算是加到12点，但是大家知道人在估算未来可能进度的时候总是过于乐观的，于是每次1点钟能睡觉就已然不错了

 

今天这么早加完我就不抱怨了。。。那么多投行的同学们还没说话呢。。。

 

睡觉去了几个小时之后我又得精神抖擞的头几个出现在办公室

我要吃学一的肘子。。。学三的麻辣烫。。。学五的牛肉丝。。。农园的排骨。。。艺园的豆腐。。。家园的牛肉串。。。佟园的孜然羊肉。。。博实的凉皮。。。北新的饺子。。。华美的宫爆鸡丁。。。西门的鸡翅。。。

 

更饿了。。。

话说某天和jeff同学在china town吃饭，他不停在吹嘘GS有多好啊有多好，就是好来就是好。虽然公司名字suck了一点，但是HR和小蜜都很pp，而且，而且最重要的是，餐厅很不错，又好吃来又便宜。

 

兄弟就是兄弟，我天天中午都在愁去哪儿吃饭，一听这个立马眼前飘起了一个美丽的新世界，里面比肯德鸡爷爷和麦当劳叔叔还慈祥的Goldman爷爷和Sachs叔叔端上了一盘又一盘香飘万里绕梁三年的牛排，龙虾，鸡腿，水果沙拉。。。

 

咽了咽口水，偶动心了：“你给俺推荐个职位吧，俺要求不高地。只要是front office，早上9点以后上班，晚上9点以前下班。。。”jeff同学鄙视的斜了我一眼，言简意赅的吐出四字真言：“你丫滚蛋！”

 

偶的美丽新世界啊。。。