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    6/3/2008

    欧洲是个地缘政治侏儒(转载)

    现在说起外包,大家的第一反应大概都是班加罗尔的IT工程师。其实,美国人才是接外包活的开山鼻祖——二战之后,欧洲就彻底将国防外包给了美国。不过,在保护伞下享受了几十年的和平和繁荣,欧洲人似乎已经开始对国际事务“何不食肉糜”了。
     
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    欧洲是个地缘政治侏儒
     
    作者:马凯硕(Kishore Mahbubani)为英国《金融时报》撰稿
    2008年6月3日 星期二
    关于欧盟(European Union)的全球地位,存在着一种悖论:它既是巨人,又是侏儒。它像巨人一样高高耸立,因为它已达到了人类文明的某种巅峰状态(在欧洲各国之间实现零战争可能性),并在地区合作事宜上取得了极大的成功。从二战之后的欧洲成功经验里,世界各国不仅能够、而且也确实学习到一些东西。
     
    然而,尽管欧洲的经济规模堪比美国,但在应对迅速变化的地缘政治环境时,它仍然还是一个政治上的侏儒。它跟从于美国的领导(可能的例外是在入侵伊拉克问题上);不愿意考虑那些迫切需要的战略倡议(例如在中东事务上);也不愿提供真正的政治领导力,以完成多哈回合(Doha round)全球贸易谈判。加上其他类似的失败之举,都使得欧洲在世界舞台上的影响力稳步萎缩。
     
    关于欧盟的另一个悖论是:在欧洲公民对于未来的心理不安全感逐日上升之际,他们将如何生存于一个安全的泡沫当中。数百万人试图以合法或非法的方式进入欧盟,因为他们想要分享欧盟为其公民创造的美好生活。如果哲学家约翰•罗尔斯(John Rawls)今天尚在人世,他很可能会根据自己的名著《公正论》(The Theory of Justice)里的标准,将欧洲的一些社会列为最公正的社会。全世界都将欧盟视为和平与繁荣的天堂。是的,正如我向英国《金融时报》专栏作家吉迪恩•拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)所说的那样,欧洲的生活很甜美。
     
    拉赫曼在他最近的专栏里表示,欧洲已经成为一个“大瑞士”。但是,欧洲人心里日益上升的不安全感也意味着,欧洲无法继续这一局面。瑞士人会觉得安全,因为他们四周都是欧洲国家。欧洲人却只能感到不安全,因为环绕他们的是一条从北非到中东、从巴尔干到高加索的动荡之弧。更为糟糕的是,在绵延很多世纪的基督教传统里,伊斯兰都被视为一种威胁,这种偏执现在已变得极度强烈。在欧洲各地的文化当中,“伊斯兰恐惧症”已然是变本加厉。
     
    考虑到欧洲曾经主宰世界近500年,而今它在应对新型地缘政治的挑战上却又是如此无能,这确实令人侧目。欧洲战略思想的匮乏程度令人震惊。欧洲多数地缘政治家都相信,通过免费搭乘美国权力的便车,欧盟能够很好地存活下来。他们指望美国来保证全球安全,而欧洲则负责料理好自己的后花园。拉赫曼认为多数欧洲人想要保持一种低调,这种说法是对的。然而,他还说欧洲的被动性既非不合逻辑,也非不道德,这就有问题了。
     
    许多欧洲人拒绝争论一个简单却难以接受的真理:在短期内搭乘美国实力的便车,会明显降低欧洲的安全程度。美国在以巴问题上的偏袒政策,加上它对伊拉克拙劣的入侵和占领,已经惹恼了12亿穆斯林。然而,美国能依靠宽广的大西洋而得以自保,但欧洲则由于和中东的地理距离,以及境内庞大的伊斯兰人口,却要直接感受伊斯兰的愤怒。简单的常识告诉我们:欧洲应该重新考虑一下,如果仅仅扮演美国版“孤独骑警”的小跟班汤托(Tonto,注:《孤独骑警》(The Lone Ranger)是一部美国流行西部电视连续剧,汤托是主人公的印第安人帮手),会产生什么样的战略代价。
     
    欧盟还有其它战略选择吗?当然有。亚洲就曾提供过一种选择:它曾向欧盟提议举办亚欧会议(Asem),而这个会议原本可以促成美国、欧盟与东亚之间稳定的三角平衡关系。如果亚欧会议的这三条腿都足够结实,每一个大国都可以运用这种三角关系,并使之成为地缘政治中的杠杆。而亚欧之间缺失的一环,让美国得到了明显的交易砝码。
     
    起初,在上世纪90年代中期,欧盟对亚欧会议的反响热烈。我了解这一点。当时我也在场。然而,当亚洲发生金融危机的时候,欧盟却在它亟需帮助的时刻弃之不顾,在亚洲心目当中遗留下一种不信任感,并表明自己只是一位不能共患难的朋友而已。考虑到亚洲的迅速复苏,并且还有大量迹象显示21世纪将成为亚洲世纪,欧洲的这个决定将会证明是它最为愚蠢的战略决策之一。
     
    更糟糕的是,欧洲还忘记了意大利文艺复兴之子马基雅维利(Machiavelli)的教导,在亚洲只是寻求一种表面上“合乎道德”的政策。在同意与印度这个世界上最大的民主国家进行合作之前,欧洲还试图施加人权方面的条件,因此引起了印度人的不快。欧洲同东盟(ASEAN)这个关键的亚洲外交论坛之间的关系,也由于缅甸问题而遭到扭曲,忽视了缅甸以外的4.5亿东南亚人口。最近,德国总理安吉拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)和法国总统尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)再一次表现出欧洲那种在战略上不惜自戕的做法,发出可能要抵制奥运会的讯号。简而言之,欧盟只要能找住机会,就会搧亚洲一记耳光。
     
    真正具有讽刺意义的是,亚洲的所作所为正在强化欧洲的安全。这一点,亚洲要比美国做得好。亚洲迈向现代化的进程始于日本,现在则席卷中国和印度,并势将发展到西亚的伊斯兰国家。当现代化的征途进发到伊斯兰世界时,欧洲将会被现代化的、中产阶级穆斯林国家所包围。
     
    因此,欧洲应该鼓励穆斯林将中国、印度和东盟国家视为自身发展的新榜样。北京奥运会若能成功,将有助于在心怀不满的伊斯兰青年当中激发起现代化的新颖梦想。这些年轻人会问:为什么我们的社会就不能像中国那样实现繁荣呢?简而言之,如果默克尔和萨科齐能够用长期的战略眼光来思维的话,他们将会热心地参与到北京奥运当中,并会为它的成功而欢呼。当伊斯兰世界最终实现现代化之时,欧洲就可以再度成为“大瑞士”了。
     
    作者马凯硕是新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)李光耀公共政策学院(Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy)院长。他在新著《新亚洲半球》(The New Asian Hemisphere)当中,对本文涉及的主题进一步进行了阐述。
    8/18/2005

    Do you hear the people sing?

    The import quotas imposed by the EU on Chinese textiles backfired, unsurprisingly.
     
    Ministers from Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden, under pressure from trading companies, attacked the newly imposed quotas and the trade protectionism behind.  "Trying to stop imports and outsourcing amounts to economic suicide", as they claimed.
     
    How right!  And those politicians finanlly said something in the economic interest of the public.
     
    Economic theory places the same weight on consumer welfare and producer welfare.  However, producers, because there are a far smaller number of them, are overwhelmingly better positioned to pool resources and co-ordinate actions to make themselves heard.  The smaller the number, the stronger the lobbying power.  Although there are various mechanisms intended to address this issue, such as the class actions in the US, they sometimes generate more problems than solved, for instance the gigantic legal and insurance costs arising from asbestos law suits.
     
    Now consumers at least find some agents - the importers, who share the same interest with or under the pressure from numerous consumers and act in an effective and timely manner.  This is a good news for both Chinese manufacturers and me, a humble consumer currently in Europe.  Let's wait and see when the quotas will be scrapped or much relaxed.
    6/21/2005

    History of a united Europe - From Paris via Rome to Maastricht and Amsterdam

    In the nearly three millenniums from the Homer Epics to the V-Day of WWII, Europe, like China, had experienced frequent and bloody wars during most of the period.  Empires rose and fell, with no single nation ever managed to dominant, not least to say unite, the whole continent.

    A more remote Europe

    Europe was once at the top of world during the peak of its two great ancient civilisations: Greece and Rome.  Ancient Greeks inherited the advancement of Mesopotamia and Nile valley, laid down the foundation of modern science, and spread the Hellenic civilisation southwards and eastwards following the sword of Alexander the Great.  Ancient Romans, on the other hand, advanced northwards and westwards, brought into the mainstream human history today’s Britain, France, Germany, and Spain.

    Europe fell into the Dark Ages after the collapse of the Roman Empire, although the Byzantine Empire maintained peace and prosperity for another millennium.  During this period, as we all well know, Europeans were backward people until some centuries after the Renaissance.

    European civilisations reached their peak, in terms of its influence in the world, in the dawn of the First World War: at that time, Japan was the only non-European or non-European-origin country on this planet which was truly independent.  Europe then headed for awful wars and recessions, only before it finally collapsed socially, politically, and economically in the biggest war in history.  By that time, hundreds years’ economic progress in the then most advanced continent had been nearly wiped off, and western Europe risked embracing communism when the military threats from eastwards became alarmingly evident.

    Formation of the EU

    Seeking for peace, security and prosperity was therefore lying deep in the root of the foundation of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) by the six founding States (Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxemburg and the Netherlands) on 18 April 1951, concluded by the Treaty of Paris, which declared the birth of a whole new Europe.  It is these core values (peace, security and prosperity) that constitute the objective, rationale and justification of an ever larger and closer union in the past half century; and it is the change of these values, and the change of relative emphasis on these values, that lead to the French and Dutch “no” on the EU Constitution, which seemed to signal a profound change in the direction of the EU from centralisation to decentralisation.  We’ll come back to this topic in some later articles.

    A further development came as the Treaty of Rome of 25 March 1957, which created the European Economic Community (EEC) and the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom).  The former community commenced the formation of a “common market” which lies in the centre of today’s EU.  Such common market is based on four fundamental freedoms: freedom of the movement of labour, goods, services, and capital.  Most of us might first be aware of the freedom of the movement of labour from the famous Bosman ruling by the European Court of Justice (EcJ), which illegalised the then normal practice of charging transfer fees even after the contracts between football clubs and players have expired.  Of course, these values are yet to be fully realised: for instance, there is no genuine single market for services, even though services weigh as much as around 70 per cent of the EU GDP.

    The Treaty of Maastricht of 7 February 1992 created the EU that we know of today.  It introduced new forms of co-operation between the Member State governments, which conceded some sovereigns over foreign, defence and home affairs policies to the newly created union.  The Single Market is also officially completed.  The EU was further developed on 2 October 1997 when the Treaty of Amsterdam was signed.

    Now the EU has 25 formal Member States, with both Romania and Bulgaria waiting for their accession treaties being ratified (which seems unlikely given the current political climate in Europe).  The timing of Member States (except the six founding States) entering the EU is listed below:

    1951: Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxemburg and the Netherlands
    1973: Denmark, Ireland and the UK
    1981: Greece
    1986: Portugal and Spain
    1995: Austria, Finland and Sweden
    2004: Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia

    The single currency and monetary union

    We cannot afford omitting the single currency (euro) and monetary union.  In 1992 the EU decided to go for economic and monetary union (EMU), involving the introduction of a single European currency managed by a European Central Bank (ECB).  The single currency - the euro - became a reality on 1 January 2002, when euro notes and coins replaced national currencies in twelve Member States (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain).

    With the loss of national currency, each Euro-zone country also conceded its control of national monetary policy to the ECB.  This centralisation created considerable economic problems in the Euro-zone as "one size (interest rate) fits all" didn't work out in such an economically diversified area.  Currently the rate is too high for Germany to make economic growth but too low for Spain to curb the ever obvious property bubble.  With the dual “no” vote, one Italian Minister even publicly called for the return of lira, signalling the likelihood of a, although quite remote, break-up of the monetary union, which was unthinkable just months ago.

    Of course not all news are bad.  Today’s indication from four new Member States (Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania and Slovenia) of their willingness to join the monetary union certainly provided some relief to the pro-euros.

    Note:

    I could be wrong in this article and I would be pleased if any of you could help correct any mistakes or omissions in it.

    For more information please visit the European Union website: http://europa.eu.int

    6/20/2005

    China and the EU

    The European Union (EU) has turned to be more and more eye-catching in China in recent years as the mutual relationship develops.  Economically it became China’s biggest trading partner last year, well ahead of the US and Japan (China was its second biggest partner after the US); politically it has vowed to form “strategic partnership” with China, a relationship which is unlikely with the US and unthinkable with Japan.

    A political and economic giant with more people and a bigger economy than that of the US and two permanent members of the UN Security Council, the EU is likely to be much closer and more important to China in the coming decades, despites of some incidents such as the recent textile trade disputes and the temporal suspension of lifting the decade-long arm embargo.

    So what is the EU, the 25-Member-States-union contributed decisively to the formation of a peaceful and prosperous Europe after its collapse in WWII?  Where does it come from and how does it function? Why does it matter to us?  And, probably more interesting, where it goes after the dual “no” declaring the de facto death of the EU Constitution from France and the Netherlands, two founding States?

    Most Chinese, however, appear to know too little about today’s Europe – our impression and knowledge might more correctly reflect the imperialism Europe a century ago.  This is partly due to our focus on the other side of the Pacific.  The complexity of various European organisations and treaties has unfortunately also contributed.

    I therefore will try to explore the above topics from now on, and endeavour to organise them in a logical and consistent way.  But I cannot commit myself to any agenda or timetable due to time and ability constraints.

    Note:

    I could be wrong in this article and I would be pleased if any of you could help correct any mistakes or omissions in it.

    For more information please visit the European Union website: http://europa.eu.int